【摘要】 煤矿事故的发生具有随机性和动态性,其相应的安全预评价涉及到许多不确定因素,因此,可采用刻画确定不确定系统的集对分析(SPA)方法进行研究。根据集对分析方法及联系熵的含义,笔者对安全-事故集对进行同异反分析,指出应采取措施使系统保持同势,以趋于安全状态;并将联系熵的方法应用于煤矿安全预评价,建立煤矿安全预评价的联系熵模型,对各安全指标可计算出不同安全等级时的熵值范围,进而可得煤矿自然条件的安全等级。采用联系熵的方法进行煤矿安全预评价,计算简单,取得了较为精确、可靠的结果,为煤矿安全预评价等不确定系统的评价提供了一种新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accidents in coal mines usually occur at random and dynamically. Their relevant safety pre-evaluation involves many uncertain factors. The method of set pair analysis (SPA), which describes the certainty and uncertainty of the system, may be used in the study. According to the set pair analysis and the content of connection entropy, the congruity, discrepancy and contrary trend of safety-accident set pair are analyzed. It is indicated that measures should be taken to keep system safe by the congruity trend; and the connection entropy should be applied in the safety pre-evaluation of coalmine to establish a connection entropy model for safety pre-evaluation in coalmine. From this model the range of entropy values at different safety gradation could be calculated for various safety indexes, from which to obtain the safety gradation of natural conditions of the coal mine. The method is simple in calculation; the results obtained are precise and reliable, which could provide a new way to evaluate uncertain system like safety pre-evaluation in coalmine.更多还原