【摘要】 在指数平滑法和VaR方法基础上,以预测企业现金流量为目标,以现金流量波动为约束条件,建立基于EWMA-VaR的企业整体现金流量预测模型。本模型的特点一是对企业整体现金流量逐年进行预测,得出预测现金流量的均值,提高现金流量的预测精度。二是建立了企业整体现金流量风险约束条件,为企业财务风险规避提供依据。三是建立整体现金流量预测区间,使企业更好地做出财务决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at forecasting the company total cash flow in the future and taking cash flow volatility as subjected condition,this paper set up the forecast model of company total cash flow based on EWMA-VaR method.One feature of this paper is to get the average cash flow in the future.It could improve forecasting precision of the cash flow.Furthermore,this paper sets up the subjected condition of fluctuation risk.It can forecast the risk caused by the fluctuation of cash flow and provide foundation of risk elusion.The third one is to set up the forecast interval of total cash flow,which could let the company make better financial decision.更多还原