【摘要】 基于随机有限元理论进行了堤防渗透失稳概率分析,探讨了渗透系数变异性、洪水位变化、堤防几何尺寸变化对渗透失稳概率的影响。结果表明,随着渗透变异系数的增加,渗透失稳概率基本呈线性增长,当变异系数增大到一定程度时渗透失稳概率保持不变,随后略有下降;随着汛期水位的升高,堤防渗透失稳的概率不断变大;渗透失稳概率随着堤防坡度变陡而不断地增加,尤其是在堤防坡比大于1:2.5时,其渗透失稳概率增加得非常快。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the stochastic finite element method (SFEM), the probability analysis has been done on the seepage failure of embankments. The influences of the variation of the coefficient of permeability, the change of the flood level and the geometry of the embankment on the failure probability of seepage are studied. The failure probability increases with the increasing of the variation of the coefficient of permeability. When the coefficient of variation increases to a certain value, the failure probability would cease to increase and then descend slightly. The failure probability increases with the increasing of the flood level. It also increases with the increasing of the angle of the embankment slope. Particularly, when the slope ratio is greater than 1:2.5 the failure probability increases rapidly.更多还原