【摘要】 目的探讨钉螺分布与气温的定量关系,为全球气候变暖与南水北调钉螺能否北移提供理论基础。方法收集多年来的年平均最低气温、1月平均最低气温、年平均气温、1月平均气温、年平均最高气温,按1km网格匹配气温数据,在GIS支持下,将空间分布的气温数据与中国血吸虫病流行县分布图进行空间统计分析,并比较不同气温与钉螺分布的吻合程度。结果钉螺分布区的累年平均最低气温的95%可信区间为(4.3~18.1℃)、累年1月平均最低气温的为(-4.6~9.2℃)、累年平均气温的为(9.4~21.1℃)、累年1月平均气温的为(0.9~12.4℃)、累年平均最高气温的为(16.2~25.6℃),其中累年1月平均气温与钉螺的分布拟合最好。结论1月平均气温是预测钉螺分布的较好指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study the quantitative relationship between the air temperature and distribution of Oncomelania snails, in order to provide theoretical foundation for understanding the impact of global climate changes and the South-North Water Transfer Project on the distribution of Oncomelania snails. Methods The data of the mean lowest air temperature in a year, mean lowest air temperature in January, mean air temperature in a year, mean air temperature in January and mean highest air temperature in a year were collected, matching the air temperature according to the 1 km’s grid. The spatial analysis of the air temperature and the distributional map of schistosomiasis in China was studied by using the GIS. The degree of their agreement was also studied. Results 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean lowest air temperature in many years was (4.3-18.1 ℃) in the area of Oncomelania snail’s distribution, 95% CI of the mean lowest air temperature in January of many years was (-4.6-9.2 ℃), 95% CI of the mean air temperature in many years was (9.4-21.1 ℃), 95% CI of the mean air temperature in January of many years was( 0.9-12.4 ℃), 95% CI of the mean highest air temperature in many years was(16.2-25.6 ℃). The degree of agreement between the mean air temperature in January of many years and Oncomelania snail’s distribution was the best. Conclusion The mean air temperature in January of many years is the better index for predicting the distribution of Oncomelania snails.更多还原