【摘要】 为了降低获取现场采样数据精确值的难度并提高事故诊断的准确性,根据模糊事故树和模糊Petri网均具有描述事件发生因果关系链这一共同特征,采用模糊Petri网来表示事故树,建立了事故树的模糊Petri网模型,在Petri网中对事故树进行了模糊分析研究.该方法不仅可以对顶上事件各特征量进行估算,还能利用模糊Petri网推理算法进行事故诊断,实现了Petri网与事故树的紧密结合,使事故诊断更加切合实际.引入模糊集合理论到事故树分析方法,用模糊数来表示事件发生的概率,减小了获取底事件发生概率精确值的难度,在一定程度上修正了事故概率统计数据的误差.该方法可以将生产现场的实测数据与专家经验数据结合起来,使得分析结果更接近于工程实际.图2,表1,参13.更多还原

【Abstract】 To reduce difficulty to obtain accurate in-situ sampling data and to enhance correctness of accident diagnosis,a new method of establishing fuzzy Petri net model by transferring a fuzzy fault tree into a fuzzy Petri net was put forward based on that a fuzzy fault tree and a fuzzy Petri net model have the same characteristics of cause-and-effect link which described occurrence of events,a fuzzy analysis was made to a fault tree based on its corresponding Petri net model.The method not only estimate all kinds of characteristic values of root event,but also make accident diagnosis by fuzzy inference algorithm of its Petri net model,therefore a tight link between a Petri net model and a fault tree is formed so that accident diagnosis is more suitable for in-site circumstances.The fuzzy set theory is introduced into analytical methods of fault tree where fuzzy numbers represents firing possibilities of events so that difficulty to obtain accurate firing possibilities of bottom events is reduced,errors from statistic data of accidental possibilities are corrected to some extent.The method can put in-site sampling data and experiences of experts together so as to keep analytical results to approximate to engineering fact.2figs.,1tab.,13refs.更多还原