【摘要】 目的:为探究通州市病毒性肝炎、细菌性痢疾、伤寒的流行趋势。方法:根据通州市1997~2003年3种病的发病情况,利用6种时间序列模型进行预测。结果:通州市3种病年发病率均有下降趋势,趋势性χ2检验有非常显著意义。病毒性肝炎、细菌性痢疾、伤寒的预测方程分别为:lny^=1n 40+0.5978×0.8221χ、ln^y=1n 8+1.5289×0.6716χ、lny^=1n 1+2.6068×0.8211χ,2004年预测发病率分别为:45.31/10万(35.58/10万~57.71/10万)、8.52/10万(5.36/10万~13.56/10万)、1.71/10万(1.20/10万~2.44/10万)。结论:通州市各项传染病防治措施是有效的,若无特殊原因,2004年通州市病毒性肝炎、细菌性痢疾、伤寒发病率将继续下降。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To explore the epidemic trends of viral hepatitis,bacillary dysentery and typhoid fever in Tongzhou city.Methods:Based on the morbidities from 1997 to 2003,six kinds of time series models were used to forecast the incidences of the three kinds of diseases.Results:There are downward trends in the incidences of the three kinds of diseases,statistical differences are very significant showed by the chi square for trend.Three prediction models were built up:viral hepatitis:lny^=1n 40+0.5978×0.8221~χ;bacillary dysentery:lny^=1n 8+1.5289×0.6716~χ;typhoid fever:lny^=1n 1+2.6068×0.8211~χ.The morbidities were predicted:viral hepatitis:45.31(35.58～57.71)/100,000;bacillary dysentery:8.52(5.36～13.56)/100,000;typhoid fever:1.71(1.20～2.44)/100,000.Conclusion:The measures of communicable diseases control and prevention are very efficient in Tongzhou.The incidences of the three kinds of diseases will continue dropping in 2004 without special circumstances.更多还原