【摘要】 影响公路建设项目投资风险的因素众多,现有的风险评价方法仅限于对风险指标进行局部的、定性的评价,不能系统地量化风险指标体系、反映风险数量特征。基于系统评价的原理,确定风险评价指标,建立风险评价体系,引入模糊一致矩阵计算基础权重,提出惩罚与激励相结合的局部变权法计算变权重,并采用模糊层次分析法预测项目风险。实例验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are lots of investment risks in road project,but the common method is to conduct qualitative and partial evaluation for the risks.On the principle of systematic evaluation,risk analysis system and risk index are set up,fuzzy consistent matrix is introduced to calculate basic weight,partial variable weight with the combination of penalty-incentive is put forward to calculate variable weight,and fuzzyAHP method is adopted to analyze the investment risks in road project.The feasibility of the method is verified in the experiment and engineering.更多还原