【摘要】 从模型分析的角度,分析了由洪水风险、防洪工程风险、防洪投资风险、洪泛区风险、洪水生态环境风险和防洪决策风险6个方面所组成的洪灾综合风险特征,构建以洪水为中心的洪灾风险链的微观结构.应用概率论方法,给出了相应的量化概念模型,并提出了具体的研究路线.最后,对洪灾综合风险的结构进行了系统分析,为深入探讨洪灾综合风险分析与管理的具体方法、模型及防洪对策提供了总体研究框架与思路.更多还原

【Abstract】 From the point of view of model,the microstructure of the risk chain,which consists of flood risk,engineering risk,investment risk,floodplain risk,flood eco-environment risk and decision-making risk for flood control,is structured regarding flood as the center.The corresponding quantitative conceptual model of them are constructed by probability theory.The technical course of whole-length study is bought forward along the progress.Besides,systematic analysis of the constitution of integrated risk has been carried out in the end;the total frame and thinking way are put forward for go deep in inquiring into the integrated risk analysis and management of the flood disaster with concrete method,model and flood-control countermeasures.更多还原