【摘要】 在预测研究中,除了要选好主要影响因素外,还要解决如何减小干扰因素的影响,以提高预测的准确性和稳定性.我国的石油消费自1993年以来一直比较强劲,年均增长率达到了7.6%,未来我国石油需求仍将保持快速增长.本文针对我国石油消费中的影响因素,建立了多变量非线性组合预测模型,并通过确定加权组合参数减少了不确定因素的影响.更多还原

【Abstract】 In the research of forecast,in order to enhance the accuracy and the stability of the forecast.not only need to choose the main influence factors,but also need to solve how to minish the influence of interferential factor.The petroleum consumption of our country has been more powerful since 1993.The average annual increase rate is up to 7.6%.The petroleum consumption of our country will keep a fast growth in the future.This text aims at the influencing factors about the petroleum consumption,builting up the multivariate nonlinear combined forecast model,and through the weighted combination reduced the impact of the uncertain factor.更多还原