【摘要】 回顾了国内外地下水动态预测研究的各种模型,将这些模型划分为确定性模型和随机模型两大类,指出各种模型的适用条件及存在问题。最后提出了提高地下水动态预测的可靠性与精度的两条途径:(1)建立既能描述地下水系统内部特征也能反映其外部特征的确定性-随机耦合模型;(2)建立地下水系统的随机微分方程模型,并将系统内部参数作为随机变量,将其外部环境因素也作为随机时间序列引入地下水流定解问题,并给出解的概率分布。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the review of all kinds of dynamic prediction models for groundwater,the models were classified into two kinds,i.e.stochastic model and deterministic model.Conditions of application and openquestions of the models were pointed out and discussed.Two methods to improve the reliability and accuracy were proposed to solve the groundwater flow problem.One is deterministic-stochastic coupled model that can describe the internal and external characteristics of groundwater system;the other is stochastic differential model that the internal parameters are taken as stochastic variables and the external environmental factors are taken as stochastic time series.The probability distributions of solutions were also given.更多还原