【摘要】 针对灰色预测与马尔科夫链预测的优点和不足。提出基于灰色一马尔科夫洪灾发生年份预测,以巢湖流域为例,对模型进行实例验证和应用。研究结果表明：将灰色系统GM(1．1)预测模型与马尔柯夫链预测方法结合起来应用,为认识水文规律提供了一条新途径；灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型与马尔柯夫链预测方法结合起来应用是建立在历史数据统计分析基础上的,两者的结合可以避免考虑其他多种影响因素,具有较大的科学性和实用性,预测精度高,其预测结果更可靠；本文研究的洪涝灾害发生年份的预测模型与方法,具有较强的理论和实际意义,可供有关部门与气象台站参考使用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grey-Markov forecasting floods is presented and the corresponding model is applied and tested with the Chaohu Lake Basin as the study area.The result shows that combination of the grey system GM (1,1) forecasting model with Markov Chain is a new way for understanding water rule.Grey System GM (1,1) Forecasting Model and Markov Chain is combined based on statistic analysis,with which the other influence factors will not be considered.Therefore,the forecasting results will be more accurate.更多还原