【摘要】 利用随机天气模型,将气候模式对大气中CO2倍增时预测的气候情景与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化对我国冬小麦和春小麦生产的可能影响。并对水分、温度、CO2综合对小麦的作用进行初步模拟分析。所得结论为:①气候变化后小麦发育将加快,生育期缩短,春小麦生育期缩短的绝对数和相对数均小于冬小麦。②北方十个站点小麦生产的最适水分条件在不同站点、不同气候情景下都有所不同。最适水分条件变幅在40%～80%。③在不考虑CO2对小麦影响的情况下,由于热量充足,只要水分条件适宜,未来我国北方干旱、半干旱地区小麦产量整体都有增产趋势。如果考虑CO2,增产效果更加明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 The effects of climate change on winter wheat and spring wheat of China were analyzed by using the stochastic weather generator which combinded the CERES-wheat model with the climate change scenarios predicted by the climate model with the amount of CO2 increased.Then control water the wheat under A2、B2 climate change scenario,with the heat and CO2 effect,were simulated respectively.The results indicate that the growing season of wheat is shortened because of climate change,.The stages of Winter wheat were more shorten than Spring wheat.In ten sites of North China,different areas and climate conditions will have different optimum water conditions.Variation scope of optimum water conditions is 40%~80%.Without the effects of CO2,wheat yield will increase under optimum water condition in the future.With CO2 effects,wheat yield has extensive increase.更多还原