【摘要】 通过对江苏省城市化变化和土地利用变化情况分析,研究快速城市化下的区域土地利用强度变化驱动机理,并构建土地利用程度变化的驱动模型。结果表明:城市化、经济非农化、人口密度以及非农就业率与土地利用程度呈正相关,人口增长和城市化发展是土地利用强度变化的主要驱动因素,国家耕地保护政策强度与土地利用程度呈负相关,国家土地政策的加强,一定程度上控制土地利用程度无限增大。在此基础上,文章又分析城市化与城镇村与工矿用地之间的动态关系,引入“城市化下的边际城镇用地扩张量”指标,发现“城市化下的边际城镇用地扩张量”总体上是一个减小的过程。在上述研究的基础上,通过建立线性回归模型,运行结果表明在江苏省城市总体规划2020年城市化率达到60%情况下,城镇村与工矿用地的总面积将比2003年增加30.7%,可见,城市化背景下建设用地的集约利用对实现区域土地资源可持续利用管理具有重要意义,据此,文章最后提出了协调城市化与土地持续利用相互关系的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 It’s very important to research intensive land use for land use structure change.The land use change during urbanization in Jiangsu Province from 1989 to 2003 was analysed.Given that,driving mechanism of intensive land use change was analyzed.Then mathematic model of driving mechanism of intensive land use change was established.The modeling result indicates that regional intensive land use change is mainly affected by urbanization,population density,non-agricultura employment and non-agricultural economic development.The policy is very important to protect farm-land resources.It embodied the control function to land use change.The marginal occupied tendency of urban land was analyzed with urbanization by mathematic model.The result shows that the area of urban land will rised,compared to 2003,the number is increased about 30.7%.At last,some suggestions are proposed.更多还原