【摘要】 根据泄洪过程中库水位过程的随机微分方程,利用数值解方法,模拟了随机干扰下的库水位及其波动状况.采用相应公式计算了洪水漫越坝顶事件的概率以及库水位过程在不同时刻的样本均值.并通过比较在同样强度的随机干扰下库水位的高低状况,确定出各种泄洪方案的优劣,从而对防洪工作具有重要的指导意义.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the process of the water level of a reservoir satisfying stochastic differential equations during the process of releasing floodwater,this paper simulates the water level and its fluctuation under stochastic disturbance of Wiener Process by means of numerical solution of stochastic differential equations.It also calculates the mean value at different time of the process of water level as well as the probability of overflowing with corresponding formula.Furthermore,it compares the water level under stochastic disturbance with the same strength in order to ascertain which one is more effective.As a result,it is helpful for the flood practice.更多还原