【摘要】 本文运用相关指标对中国农产品贸易地理集中度与出口不稳定性进行了经验分析。研究发现:亚洲地区市场决定了中国大部分农产品的出口不稳定性,且来自于亚洲市场的冲击很难在其他几大洲的市场上得到平抑。进入20世纪90年代后期逐渐多元化的市场格局有助于平抑中国农产品出口的不稳定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is argued that whether trade concentration of export results in export instability depends not only on the share of the major trade partners but also on the instability of major trade partrer.This paper conducts a simple descriptive analysis of China’s agricultural trade from geographic perspective,then make an exploration of geo- graphic concentration and export instability based on the extension of Tegene(1991)and Love(1979)’s mod- els.The results show that shocks from Japanese market is difficult to be relieved,and diversification of the ex- port market is helpful to reduce the instability.All these give many implications for future agricultural trade poli- cy.更多还原