【摘要】 [目的]分析上海市卢湾区大气污染急性暴露对居民每日死亡数的影响。[方法]分别采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)和广义线性模型(GLM),在控制死亡的长期趋势、气象因素、“星期几效应”等混杂因素的基础上,分析上海市卢湾区2001年1月1日~2004年12月31日大气污染与居民每日死亡数的关系。[结果]在GAM中大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10),SO2和NO2,48h平均浓度每增加10μg/m3,居民死亡的相对危险度分别为1.0003(95%CI1.0000~1.0007)、1.0009(95%CI0.9998~1.0019)和1.0012(95%CI1.0003~1.0021);在GLM中大气PM10,SO2和NO2,48h平均浓度每增加10μg/m3,居民死亡的相对危险度分别为1.0004(95%CI1.0001~1.0008)、1.0008(95%CI0.9998~1.0019)和1.0012(95%CI1.0002~1.0022)。[结论]GAM、GLM拟和结果相似,上海市卢湾区目前的PM10和NO2水平对居民日死亡数有影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] To assess the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Luwan District,Shanghai. [Methods] All death records of the deceased who lived in Luwan district from January 1,2001 to December 31,2004 were collected.A time-series approach（GAM and GLM） was used to study the acute effects of air pollution on daily mortality after controlling for long-term trends,weather variables,and day of the week. [Results] An increase of 10μg/ m³ of PM₁₀,SO₂ and NO₂ corresponded to 1.0003（95% CI 1.0000¹.0007）,1.0009（95% CI 0.9998¹.0019） and 1.0012（95% CI 1.0003¹.0021） relative risk of daily mortality in GAM and 1.0004（95% CI 1.0000¹.0008）,1.0008（95% （CI） 0.9998¹.0019） and 1.0012（95% CI 1.0002¹.0022）in GLM,respectively in Shanghai. [Conclusion]Two analysis models have similar result that air pollution has an effect on mortality.更多还原