【摘要】 少子老龄化对养老保险财务平衡的影响须放在人口、劳力力市场、养老保险体系和经济环境四个系统相互作用的框架下来考察。在此框架下从当期平衡和时期平衡的角度预测2005-2050年的财务平衡可以得出:老龄化通过对城市化率、劳动参与率、失业率的影响使赡养率提高,从而改变了缴费率和积累率,而较之降低替代率而言,提高退休年龄可更有效地缓解老龄化带来的压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The influence of financing balance of the social security pressed by belowreplacement fertility and population aging should be considered on the foundation of four systems: population、labor market、social security and economic environment. From the forecast of financing balance by means of oneperiod and periods balance from 2005 to 2050 years we can see that, population aging increases the support rate through urbanization rate、labor participation rate、unemployment rate, then changes handin rate and accumulating rate. Compared to decreasing the substitute rate, heightening the retirement age is a much more effective way to relief the pressure.更多还原