【摘要】 为提高定点、定时、定量的精细化预报水平,综合利用气象卫星红外资料、宁夏区域非静力平衡中尺度数值预报模式高时间、高空间分辨率产品及导出量,针对宁夏主要灾害性天气,以精细化预报为目的,利用3215时次个例,通过卫星气象学、天气学诊断分析,研究了宁夏主要灾害性天气在20km空间分辨率、1h时间分辨率上的变化规律,探讨了精细化预报指标;并以此为基础,建立了强对流、沙尘暴天气过程的宁夏精细化预报概念模型.通过实际业务应用表明,初步满足了业务需求.更多还原

【Abstract】 Infrared data of meteorological satellite,high temporal and spatial resolution derived data of local numerical model forecast output products in Ningxia were studied for the main disaster weather events to establish the fine forecast system.3,215 cases of hourly data were analyzed with the principles of satellite meteorology and meso-scale meteorology,the meteorological features on spatial resolution 20 km,and temporal resolution 1h were discussed and the indices to forecast in detail were extracted.The conception models to forecast severe convection and sandstorm were setup and the routine practice in recent years indicated that the conceptual models met the need of operational forecast well.更多还原