【摘要】 简要介绍了南水北调东、中线受水区的农业资源、生态环境和农业生产的现状,并对调水后资源、环境和农业的可能变化进行了初步预测。分析资料表明,南水北调工程完成后,5月份降水量可能略有增加(增加量约占年降水量的3%)；有效灌溉面积将略有增加(约占2004年有效灌溉面积的3%～7%)；在枯水年的枯水期,东线调水区的潮区界、潮流界、盐水入侵界可能有所上移(2～3km)；东线、中线受水区2004—2020年粮食总产年增长率可望达到1．6%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present situations and the forecasts of the agricultural resources,the ecological environment and the agricultural production in both the East Area and the Middle Area of the South-to-North Water Diversion of China were briefly presented in this paper.According to the ana- lyzed data,the precipitation in spring will be increased by 3%,the irrigated area will be increased by 3%～7%,the distance of tidal current and the sea water in the East Area will be pushed on by 2～3 km when the discharge in Datong Station will be 7000 m3/s;and the annual increasing rate of grain output from 2004 to 2020 in both the East Area and the Middle Area will be 1.6% after the water diversion.更多还原