【摘要】 本文运用HP滤波、迭代的相关分析、Granger因果检验、DAG技术、结构VAR模型、预测误差方差分解等方法分析了粤港澳经济增长和经济周期之间的联系,结果表明,在样本期内:粤港和粤澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性比港澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性弱,而且粤港和粤澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性正处于下降时期;粤港澳之间经济增长不存Granger因果联系;只有港澳之间经济波动存在显著的同期因果关系;粤港和粤澳经济波动的相互解释能力是有限的,它们比香港对澳门的解释能力差。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper employs HP filter, recursive correlation, Granger causality, DAG, structural VAR, and variance decomposition to investigate the economic integration among Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau. The results show: synchronizations of economic growth and business cycle between Guangdong and Hong Kong and between Guangdong and Macau are weaker than that between Hong Kong and Macau. Synchronization of economic growth and business cycle between Guangdong and Hong Kong and between Guangdong and Macau are decreasing. There are no Granger causality relationships of economic growth among the three regions. There is only significant contemporaneous correlation of business cycle between Hong Kong and Macau.更多还原