【摘要】 在煤矿事故死亡人数灰色预测的基础上引入马尔可夫链预测理论,建立了煤矿事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型,该模型兼有灰色预测和马尔可夫预测的优点,不仅提高了波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。实例证明灰色马尔可夫模型预测精度明显高于灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型预测精度,从而说明灰色马尔可夫模型预测煤矿事故死亡人数的发展规律是可行有效的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Base on the grey prediction of the fatality number in a mine accident,the Markov chains prediction theory was introduced to build a grey Markov prediction model of mine accident.The model with a grey prediction function and a Markov prediction function can not only improve the high change random prediction accuracy and also develop the application range of the grey prediction.The practices showed that the prediction accuracy of the grey Markov model was higher than the prediction accuracy of the grey residue revised model.Therefore the grey Markov model to predict the development law of fatality number in a mine accident is feasible and efficient.更多还原