【摘要】 根据能量守恒原理,考虑太阳短波辐射、大气和地面的长波辐射、潜能、感热传输以及下垫面的热传导等能量之间的平衡,并考虑雪层中的温度分布,建立了一种应用气象站观测数据进行积雪表面温度和深度预测的模型。应用浙江省新昌县气象站2004年12月30日19时到2005年1月2日20时、2005年3月12日19时到3月13日10时逐时的各气象要素资料进行模拟分析,并与该时段内所测得的积雪表面温度和深度进行对比,发现日落后到日出前积雪表面温度预测值和实测值误差在1.5℃以内;在日出到日落之间用于雪面温度观测的水银温度表受太阳辐射直接照射影响,读数明显偏大,并出现正值;积雪深度预测值和实测值误差在2cm以内。因此,该模型对积雪表面最低温度和积雪深度预测具有较好的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the principle of conservation of energy, and having considered solar-wave radiation, atmospheric and ground long-wave radiation, latent heat fluxe, sensible heat fluxe and heat conduction of ground,and the temperature distributing in snow cover,a forecasting model for snow cover temperature and depth with data from weather stations was established. The daily observation data of weather stations, Xinchang, Zhejiang (from December 30, 2004 to January 2, 2005 and from March 12, 2005 to March 13, 2005) has been used in the validation of the model. Results showed that from sundown to sunrise, the snow surface temperature forecast value and the actual value error was less than 1.5℃; from sunrise to sundown, the observation of snow surface temperature was higher than prediction, and sometime was higher than 0℃ owing to mercury thermometer illuminated by sunlight. The biggest error for the snow cover depth was less than 2 cm. So the model is practically useful for forecasting snow surface minimum temperature and snow cover depth?更多还原