【摘要】 本文以南宁市为例,运用灰色关联度和生产函数,分析了1997-2003年粮食生产的影响因素及其贡献率。粮食产量灰色关联度分析作出关联因子排序:粮食单产>耕地面积>粮食作物播种面积>化肥施用量>有效灌溉面积>农村用电量>农业机械总动力>农药施用量,表明粮食单产、耕地面积与粮食作物播种面积对粮食总产的影响最大,从投入角度分析粮食总产与化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积关联度大;基于生产函数的贡献率分析表明:化肥施用量、农业科技进步、粮食播种面积、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、农业劳动力对粮食增长的贡献率分别为40.08%、27.62%、12.12%、10.78%、8.91%、0.49%,说明7年来粮食增长主要依靠化肥投入、农业科技进步,农业劳动力对粮食产量增加作用微小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the statistic data of Nanning City from19972003,this paper used grey corselativity analysis,production function approaches to analyze key factors and growth contribution of grain production.The order of GCA is: production of per land area > arable land area> grain planting area > fertilizer input > irrigation area >rural electricity consumption> agricultural machinery gross power >pesticide dosage.The contribution to grain production is chemical fertilizer input(40.08%)、agricultural technology progress(27.62%)、grain planting area(12.12%),agricultural machinery gross power(10.78%),irrigation area(8.91%),amount of agricultural labor(0.49%).The result showed that production of per land area,amount of arable land area & grain planting area have great influence on grain total production,the growth of grain production of Nanning mainly depends on chemical fertilizer input and agricultural technology progress,while the agricultural labor has very few effects on the grain production.更多还原