【摘要】 介绍了防波堤风险分析研究的内容、方法和目前的研究进展。防波堤风险分析包涵四个主要方面:防波堤风险辨识、防波堤风险估计、防波堤风险评价和防波堤风险控制。具体内容包括:防波堤系统正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态的界定,波浪不确定性的识别和描述,防波堤失效模式的探讨,单一模式失效概率和系统失效概率的计算,两种极限状态失效后果的量化,成本-获益分析,效用分析,可接受风险准则和降低风险的措施。防波堤风险分析的目的在于为决策者明确工程中存在的诸多不确定性因素,提供充足信息,实现项目的决策优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the contents and methods of breakwater risk analysis are briefly discussed. A review is made in four aspects: risk identification, risk estimation, risk assessment, and risk control. Specific contents include the identification of serviceability limit state and ultimate limit state, description of long-term random waves, investigations of breakwater failure modes, failure probability calculations for single failure mode and the whole breakwater system, quantification of failure sequent, cost-benefit analysis, and utility analysis. A set of rules for risk acceptance and measures to reduce risk are also discussed. Breakwater risk analysis offers sufficient information for policymakers to be aware of the uncertainties involved in the project, hence to accomplish the optimization of the decision.更多还原