【摘要】 连锁性崩溃是所有系统都可能发生的一种导致严重后果的现象.脆性理论是研究系统连锁性崩溃现象和本质的一种理论.该文对系统的脆性进行了数学定义,并通过基于元胞自动机理论建立脆性模型并仿真,通过选取不同的参数进行研究,得到了系统处于自组织临界态和系统中脆性源的存在是系统脆性激发的2个必要条件.总结出了脆性源的特性:系统的脆性源随着参数平均值的升高而增加,系统的脆性源只是一部分子系统,系统的脆性源随着系统的运行参数的不同而不同,系统脆性源的分布随着运行参数的不同而不同.证明了处于自组织临界态的系统脆性激发的频率远比正常的系统高,从而可以实时地预防和控制脆性被激发的因素,避免或减轻脆性造成的后果.更多还原

【Abstract】 A cascading collapse can happen in any system and lead to severe problems.Brittleness theory was explored and a brittle model was built and simulated to prevent or control a system’s vulnerability to collapse.The brittle model was built by cellular automata.Two systems with different parameters were studied.Two necessary conditions that waken brittleness were obtained in a system working in self-organized state and an existing brittle source.It is found that a brittle source increases as the average of parameter increases.The brittle source is a part of system.The probability that brittleness will waken in a self-organized state is higher than a normal system.Thus,it is important to prevent and control factors that waken brittleness to avoid or lighten the result of brittleness.更多还原