【摘要】 在充分掌握上海电网负荷特性之后,针对上海市调AGC控制要求,提出一种基于改进相似日的超短期负荷预测方法。该法利用相似日的每两点负荷变化值相似,依概率预测未来负荷变化趋势,能准确计算未来5 m in负荷值。通过算例结果分析可知,该法预测误差较好,具有较强的适应性。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the fully grasping of the load characteristics in shanghai,a method for ultra-short term load forecast based on improved similar historical day data has been proposed according to the requirement of AGC control of Shanghai control center.The method adopts the character that the change of two load-points is near same in similar day,according to some percentage forecast the load movement,it can accurately calculate the load of the next 5 minutes.Its practical application shows that its error analysis index is better and it has good applicability.更多还原