【摘要】 采用系统和比较的方法对影响枯水径流的自然与人为因素、枯水径流的预测方法进行总结。笔者认为在枯水径流研究领域应当关注和加强以下问题:①研究各种水文模型,分析全球性气候变化对枯水径流可能带来的影响;②加强对枯水径流特征的量化研究,建立人类影响及其分析的数据库和情境模型;③利用3S技术获取无资料地区的可靠的枯水径流信息,以提高枯水预测的精确性;④加强喀斯特地区枯水径流的研究。这对进一步开展枯水、枯水径流研究以及枯水资源的评价计算和合理开发利用,保证经济建设的持续稳定发展和解决枯季水资源的供需矛盾具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the systemic and comparative methods, this paper reviews the low flow runoff from natural and anthropogenic factors, its forecast methods.Some priorities need more attention in future research of low-flow runoff: ①study investigation of the effects of various global climate change scenarios on low-flow runoff by means of hydrological models; ②strengthen the quantitative studies on low-flow runoff characteristics, and establish the databases of anthropogenic impacts and their subsequent analysis and scenario modeling; ③use 3S technics to obtain reliable low-flow information of ungauged catchments, and improve the low-flow forecast accuracy; ④strengthen the research on low-flow runoff in karst region. This is of great significance that we study low flow further, evaluate and rational utilize low flow water resources, and ensure the continued stable development of economic construction and solve the contradiction of the supply and demand of water resources.更多还原