【摘要】 甘蔗燃料乙醇产业的发展背景是国家基于石油替代战略而在2001年启动的“变性燃料乙醇”和“车用乙醇汽油”推广计划。目前燃料乙醇发展的突出障碍是生产成本较高,因此需要国家的大量补贴。本文借鉴巴西利用甘蔗发展低成本燃料乙醇的经验,对中国用甘蔗生产燃料乙醇的技术成熟度、市场竞争力和环境影响进行了分析,并得出以下结论:中国用甘蔗生产燃料乙醇在工艺和设备上不存在根本性、长期性的障碍;在目前的燃料乙醇和食糖价格下,甘蔗燃料乙醇的生产具有比较优势;甘蔗燃料乙醇生产中对环境的负面影响在现有的环保技术条件下可以得到克服,并且还将促进温室气体减排。因此,国家“车用乙醇汽油”计划的下一步推广应该充分考虑到广东、广西、福建等甘蔗优势省份,以甘蔗燃料乙醇产业的发展来促进农业和能源的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on national strategies of oil security, Chinese government started “Denatured Fuel Ethanol” program and “Ethanol gasoline for motor vehicles” program in 2001, which is the background of sugarcane fuel ethanol production possibility in China. The utmost development barrier of fuel ethanol is the high cost, which mainly related to the high price of feedstock. Governmental subsidy to 1 ton of fuel ethanol is about 1370 RMB, but it will not last for long. Considering the successful experience of sugarcane fuel ethanol production in Brazil, the article assesses technical, economic and environmental possibilities of the same industry in China. It comes to several conclusions. China already has the technical ability to produce fuel ethanol from sugarcane and control negative environmental impact, which mainly exists in wastewater emission. Based on the lifecycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions related to different types of ethanol feedstock, sugarcane ethanol is significantly lower than others. In different types of ethanol feedstock for 1 ton of fuel ethanol production, sugarcane is the cheapest, which cost less than 2000 RMB (material cost only, processing cost not included). Considering present prices of fuel ethanol and sugar, producing both sugar and fuel ethanol from sugarcane is more profitable than producing sugar only (when sugar price is 3000RMB/t and fuel ethanol price is 5000RMB/t, from 1 ton of sugarcane, the former process method gains 31.7 RMB more). Finally, the article suggests that national “Denatured Fuel Ethanol” program and “Ethanol gasoline for motor vehicles” program give priorities to southern provinces such as Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian, which have advantages in sugarcane plantation, to develop sugarcane fuel ethanol industry and promote Chinese sustainable agriculture and energy in the 21st century.更多还原