【摘要】 本文以26个具有“二元经济结构”特征的转型经济国家为样本,通过建立三元模型,对这些国家从1995￣2004年期间汇率制度转换情况进行了实证研究。结果表明,模型中的解释变量和反映“二元经济结构”特征的控制变量均具有很强的显著性,模型可靠稳定。最后,将我国的数据代入到模型中进行模拟和预测,得出了人民币汇率制度从1995年以来就应该向更加浮动的方向转换的结论。因此,应该把握当前有利时机,积极地向更加灵活的、有管理的浮动汇率制度的新框架进行转换。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on a sample of 26 transition economies characterized by"dual economic structure", through establishing a tri-nominal Logit model, this paper empirically studies the exchange rate regime transition of these economy from 1995-2004. Results show that independent variants and control variants which reflect"dual economic structure"are all statistically significant, the model is reliable and stable. Finally, we put China’s data into the model to simulate and forecast, and draw the conclusion that RMB exchange rate regime should have been transited to a more flexible one since 1995. Therefore, we should grasp advantageous chances and transit to a more flexible, manageable floating exchange rate regime.更多还原