【摘要】 利用水文、气象台站观测资料,分析了黄河河源区近几十年来温度、降水的变化。结果显示,该区域的温度对全球变暖有着明显的对应关系,近几十年来流域各个地方的温度有着不同程度的上升。降水量总体上呈减少态势,但因地理位置的不同而差异较大。其中,位于流域产流高值区的东南部近10余年降水大幅减少,受其影响,黄河源区产水量呈持续递减的态势。基于上述分析,利用大气环流模型(GCMS)与统计模式对未来流域气温、降水和径流的可能变化进行了预测,计算结果均表明,未来30年里黄河河源区的温度将进一步上升,并且降水量也有显著增加。受其影响,黄河河源区径流量将比1990S有显著增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 Changes of temperature,precipitation and runoffin the riverhead area of the Yellow River basin were analyzed according to the related hydrological and meteorological data for about 50years. The results showed thetemperature change possessed the obvious corresponding relationship with global warming,and temperatures all rose in varied degrees at everyplace in the area.Precipitation in the area had been decreasing as whole since 1960s,but the decrease extents of the precipitation at everyplaceshowed obvious difference becauseof different geography position,and the decrease extent of the precipitation in the southeast of the area was the biggestsince 1990,where runoff yield was the highest in the area.The runoff in the riverhead area of the Yellow River had been decreasing continually because of the influences of above factors.GCMS and some statistic models were used for forecasting the future possible variations on the precipitation and runoff in the basin based on above analysis,and the results showed temperature in the area would unceasinglyrise and precipitation markedlyincrease in the future 30 years.Runoff in the area woull also increase in a certain extentalong with precipitation increasing.更多还原