【摘要】 以松嫩平原西部荒漠化的典型区域大安市为研究对象,在GIS平台下,根据1986年,1996年和2000年TM影像解译获取的景观动态数据,分析近15年大安市荒漠化土地动态变化规律。并应用Markov模型预测大安市景观格局动态,结果表明如不采取合理有效的措施,2050年荒漠化土地将占土地总面积的42.30%,高-中覆盖度草地,水域,沼泽将大面积退化,分别仅占1986年水平的48.69%,24.71%和22.74%。在此基础之上,运用灰色关联方法分析了土地荒漠化的主要驱动因子。近15年来筑路、开荒等不合理的社会经济活动是土地荒漠化的主要驱动因子;气候因子的变动有利于土地荒漠化过程的发展,是土地荒漠化过程的背景因子;水文因子迭加了人类的无序开发、利用,是土地荒漠化过程的重要影响因子。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land desertification is one of the main ecological environment problems, and threatening the safety of the ecological environment.Daan region is one of the typical desertification regions in the western Songnen Plain.Based on the GIS and Landsat TM images of 1986,1996 and 2000,the land use maps were complied.The desertification land was transfomed from the other land use types.In recent 15 years,variation of the land use was arable land and the desertification land were main land type;variance ratioof the desertification land was 31.97km²/a,which ranked the first in all land use types.Until 2050,the result of Markov model’s forecasting presented that the desertification land will account for 42.30% of the studied region;high-middle covered grasslands,waters and marshes will present different degree of degeneration,only accounting for 48.69%,24.71% and 22.74% respectively of the areas in 1986.The gray incidence analysis presented that the impropersocial and economic actions are main driving factors to the land desertification,such as road building,land reclamation;climate factor is the backgroundfactor,which ispropitious toland desertification process;The hydrological factor overlain human’s improper exploitationand use are important factors to the land desertification.更多还原