【摘要】 利用甘肃省雨养农业区4个地(市)31个县近40 a的秋粮产量和气候资料,分析了这几个区域40 a来的气候变化特征、产量演变规律,并对秋粮生产的脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明,近40 a来甘肃雨养农业区的气候表现为暖干化演变趋势;气候的暖干趋势对秋粮的增产不利,气候的暖干化减缓了粮食的增产速度;气候波动剧烈的地区秋粮生产的脆弱度大。强脆弱区主要集中在陇东东部及天水北部地区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the yield and climate data in rainfed farming areas of Gansu,the variations of climate and yield were analyzed,and the vulnerability of autumn grain crops in these areas was estimated.The results showed that the climate represented to become warmer and drier in recent 40 years,which was disadvantageous to productivity increase.In the areas where the weather factors strongly fluctuated,the production of autumn grain was very vulnerable.The strong vulnerable areas were eastern part of Longdong and northern part of Tianshui.更多还原