【摘要】 目的通过乘数法估算中国男性同性恋人群规模,为艾滋病疫情估计及防治工作提供依据。方法利用乘数法于2004年和2003年分别对北京和哈尔滨市男性同性恋人群进行估计。通过当地指定网站统计在规定的时间内访问的男性同性恋人数(r),通过对当地男性同性恋人群抽样调查获得在规定时间内访问指定网站的比例(p),从而获得乘数m(1/p),估算当地的男性同性恋人群数N(r×m)。结果北京市估计结果:在规定的3月内到场所>1次/月与到场所≤1次/月的男性同性恋访问指定网站人数(r)分别为2 905人、18 775人,两者的乘数(m)分别为3.82和2.54,北京市男性同性恋人群估计为58 721人,约占当地15~49岁男性人口的1.0%;哈尔滨市估计结果:1周内到指定网站的男性同性恋人数(r)为4 923人,乘数(m)为1.6,哈尔滨男性同性恋人群估计为7 877人,约占当地15~49岁男性人口的0.3%。结论用乘数法能简单准确估计男性同性恋人群规模,但该两项调查估计时均有一些可能低估或高估的因素,因此在项目计划和政策制定时应参考使用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM) using a multiplier method.Methods Specified MSM websites were selected to count the number of visited MSM(r) in Beijing and Harbin cities in 2003 and 2004.A survey was conducted among local MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM(p) who visited the specified websites during the given period.The multiplier(m=1/p) can be calculated and compute the population size of MSM(N=r×m).Results There were(2 905) Internet visiting MSMs who came to a homosexual site more than once a month and(18 775) MSMs less than once a month during the period of 3 months in Beijing city.The multipliers were 3.82 and 2.54 respectively.The MSM population size estimated in Beijing city was(58 721) which account for 1.0% of male population aged 15-49.There was(4 923) Internet visiting MSM in one week in Harbin city and the multiplier was 1.6.The MSM population was estimated(7 877) which account for 0.3% of male population aged 15-49.Conclusion The multiplier method was feasible to estimate the population size of MSM.更多还原