【摘要】 中长期地震预测工作直接服务于10~20年左右的防震减灾工作,科学意义和社会效应十分明显,但受预测时间尺度限制,较长期地震预测和短临地震预报远未达到系统化、和实用化的程度。安徽属中强地震活动区,地震活动性较弱,由于中强地震一般不产生明显的地表错断现象,故难以通过地表调查获取断层活动的定量数据在相关区域开展中长期地震危险区的预测工作。近年来,在安徽地区地震地质、历史地震活动研究等方面取得了一定的进展。本研究在此基础上综合利用活动断层、历史地震、地球物理场、现代构造应力场等反映的长期和超长期地震危险性信息和发震构造环境,结合地震复发间隔和地震活动趋势分析,尝试应用于安徽未来中长期地震危险区的划分,为2006~2020年安徽地震重点监视防御区的综合圈定提供地震地质学依据。结果显示:安徽中长期地震危险区可分为两类,Ⅰ类地震危险区有泗县-泗洪(M≥6.0)、霍山-六安(M≥5.0);Ⅱ类地震危险区有马鞍山(M≥5.0)、淮北(M≥5.0)、铜陵-青阳(M≥5.0)。其中,Ⅰ类地震危险区在预测时段内,发生所预测震级的可能性较大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mid-long-term Seismic Prediction serves the 10～20-year quakeproof and disaster mitigation directly, with remarkable scientific significance and social benefit Systemization and practicability of long-term and short-term seismic prediction had not implemented. Anhui province is a mid-strong seismic active region where seismic activity is weak. Mid-strong earthquake usually do not generate surface fault, so it’s difficult to obtain the quantitative data of faults by looking into surface fault and predict mid-long-term seismic risk in relevant region. Studying on seism and geology and historical earthquake activity obtained some advancement in Anhui recent years. Based on these data and active fault、historical earthquake, geophysics field, modern tectonic stress field that reflect the long-term and ultra-long-term risk information, we compartmentalize the mid-long term seismic risk zone. We think of earthquake tectonic surrounding and analyze recurrence interval and active trend of earthquake. We provide a seismic and tectonic foundation to demarcate important surveillance recovery zones in Anhui in 2006～2020.The result shows that there are two kinds of mid-long-term seismic risk zone in Anhui. Sixian-Sihong(M≥6.0)and Huoshan-Liuan(M≥5.0)are the Ⅰstyle of seismic risk zone. Maanshan(M≥5.0)、Huaibei(M≥5.0)and Tongling-Qingyang(M≥5.0) are the Ⅱ style of seismic risk zone. The probability of earthquake occurring in the Ⅰstyle of seismic risk zone is bigger than that in the Ⅱ style in the period of prediction.更多还原