【摘要】 本文通过GM(1,1)灰色模型将庄浪县作物产量分解为趋势产量、气象产量,并对庄浪县土豆、小麦作物的气象产量与降水量进行了相关性分析。研究结果表明,在1998年以前土豆和小麦的气象产量与降水量的相关性明显,相关系数分别为0.435和0.618,说明了小麦需水量高于土豆,该区更适合种植土豆作物,而从1998年该县完全梯田化后这种相关性就逐渐弱化了。更多还原

【Abstract】 The crops yield is divided into trend and weather outputs according to GM(1,1) model in Zhuanglang County.The article also analyzes the relativity between weather output and precipitation of potato and wheat.The results show that the relativity is very obvious before 1998,the relative coefficient separately is 0.435 and 0.618,which explains the water requirement of wheat is more than potato,so it is better for planting potato in the area.But since 1998,the relativity is gradually lower after totally terraced of the field in the county.更多还原