【摘要】 介绍目前电力系统常用的中长期负荷预测的方法,根据邯郸地区1990-1999年的用电量,用各预测方法分别预测出了2000-2003年的用电量,并与实际用电量相比较,对预测结果进行了分析。证明组合预测模型总体上优于传统的单一固定式模型,是提高预测精度简单而有效的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduced some methods for medium and long-term load forecast of power system.Based on the dates of the Handan region′s electric weight in 1990-1999,we forecasted the electric weight of 2000-2003 with each forecast method.The forecasting result was compared with the actual dates.It is proven that the combination forecasting model is better than traditional unitary stationary model in general.The combination forecasting model is a simple and effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.更多还原