【摘要】 提出了基于可信性理论的运行风险评估算法,采用随机模糊变量的期望值表示全系统的运行风险指标。以所提出的算法为基础,开发了风险评估软件,该软件具备串行和并行运行模式,并具有如下特点:①元件级的不确定性包括发电机强迫停运等原发性故障和保护拒动等波及性故障; ②系统评估方法包括充分性评估、稳定性与充分性综合评估;③系统决策分析可为发电计划调整、拉闸限电计划和自动重合闸配置方式等提供风险评估。WSCC 9系统与吉林电网算例说明所提出的方法是合理有效的。由于运行风险系统需要在分布式环境下与EMS等信息系统集成,所以存在跨平台、多厂家和信息安全等技术层面问题。文中给出遵循IEC 61970标准的解决方案,采用了基于CORBA的软总线实现了与调度自动化系统的集成。该软件已在金华地区电网得到应用,证明了所提出的方法的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the credibility theory, an algorithm for random fuzzy operational risk assessment is proposed, and power system operating risk is expressed by a random fuzzy expected value. Based on the proposed algorithm, a practical risk assessment software package is developed. Some important functions are implemented in this software:①Generator forced outage and cascading failure caused by refusal operations of relays can be considered;②An adequacy model and a composite stability and adequacy model are adopted in power system simulation respectively;③Some tools, such as generation dispatching, load shedding and re-closure types selection, are developed to support the decision making. The numeric tests on WSCC 9 system and a provincial network are done and the results verify the validity of the method. To integrate the system with different vendors’ EMS/DTS, IEC 61970 is adopted in the software development. And a technique for parallel computing is also realized to speed up the computation. Results for numeric tests under various conditions are given. The proposed risk evaluation system has been put into practice in Jinghua power bureau, and the practicability of the propose method is verified. This work is supported by Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2004CB217904) and the Doctoral Scientific Research and Innovation Foundation of Tsinghua University.更多还原