【摘要】 国内外10余个国家多年的统计结果表明能源弹性系数正常值在0.5左右,但我国“十五”期间能源弹性系数基本上均超过1,最高达1.73,说明我国“十五”期间能源与环境的发展模式不够和谐。结合2004年-2005年上报国家环保总局环境工程评估中心审查的火电项目总装机容量3.77×108kW,多种方案预测了我国“十一五”期间能源、特别是火电的发展与大气污染物排放,结果表明“十一五”期间我国能源与环境的发展仍然很难和谐。为逐步实现能源与环境的和谐发展,必须加大产业结构调整力度,限制能耗总量增长过快趋势,使我国能源弹性系数逐步恢复到正常值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The statistic results of more than ten countries for years indicate that normal elasticity ratio of energy is 0.5 or so.It almost exceeds 1,the maximum to 1.73 in our country during the tenth five-year plan.This shows energy and environment development is insufficient harmonious in China.The total capacity of thermal power is 3.77×10~8 kW from year 2004 to 2005,which be inspected by the Environmental project Evaluation Center of State Environmental Protection Administration.The energy resource,especial thermal power development and air pollutant emission forecasting based on various schemes are put forward.The results indicated that energy and environment development is still difficult to harmony.In order to realize the harmonious development between energy and environment, industrial structure adjustment must be strengthened through limiting the energy consumption over-fast growing tendency.It should make Chinese energy elastic coefficient get back gradually to normal value.更多还原