【摘要】 基于基本时间序列分解法、回归分析法和定性预测法,根据“误差决定权重”的指导原则对各种单一预测方法进行权重分配,提出了适用于需求增长型空调生产企业销量综合性预测方法的基本思路,结合国内某空调生产企业实际调研数据给出了计算实例。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the basic time-series decomposition method,regression method and subjective forecasting method,the paper presents fundamental idea of a comprehensive sales forecasting method to demand increasing air-conditioner manufacturers.Weight of each forecasting method lies in its forecasting error of several foregoing periods.A case study is also given according to the practical data of an air-conditioner manufacturer in China.更多还原