【摘要】 应用多重贝努利独立试验模型,研究2006~2020年间大陆发生7级以上大地震的频次及其概率,以及最大震级的预测问题。研究结果表明,2006~2020年间大陆发生7.0~7.9级和7.5~7.9级大地震1次以上的概率为1.00,发生8级大地震1次以上的概率为0.67,或者说其间肯定会发生7级大地震,而发生10次7.0~7.9级和1次7.5~7.9级大地震的可能性最大。若按超过概率水平0.10而论,发生7.0~7.9级地震最少发生8次,最多发生12次;发生7.5~7.9级地震为1~4次,发生1~2次8.0~8.9级大地震可能性最大。2020年前中国大陆发生最大地震的震级可能为7.5~7.9级。不排除发生8级地震的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 A study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes(M_S≥7.0) before 2020 in China′s continent has been down by using n-multi Bernoulli model of independence test.The results show that the occurrence probability of earthquakes with M_S=7.0~7.9 and M_S=7.5~7.9 are 1.0;the occurrence probability of earthquakes with M_S≥8.0 is 0.67 before 2020 in China’s continent.According to the preceding probability level of 0.10,numbers of earthquakes with M_S=7.0~7.9,M_S=7.5~7.9 and M_S≥8.0 would range from 8 to 12,1 to 4 and 1 to 2,respectively.Therefore,the maximum magnitude of great earthquakes would be 7.5~7.9,and it doesn′t exclude the possibility of earthquake occurrence with M_S≥8.0 before 2020 in China′s continent.更多还原