【摘要】 绝缘材料的寿命模型一直是国内外学者研究热点之一。本文对油纸绝缘进行电热联合加速老化,利用Weibull分布对多次试验得到的击穿寿命进行统计分析,求出平均寿命。并对国际上几种主要电?热联合老化寿命模型进行多元回归分析,估计出各模型的参数,计算理论预测寿命。最后比较各模型的理论预测寿命与用Weibull分布求出的平均寿命的误差,深入分析各数学模型产生不同误差的原因,得出FALLOU寿命模型是最适合本文所述油纸绝缘分析的寿命模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the main insulation used in oil-immersed transformer, oil-paper insulation suffers from thermal and electrical aging in the long-term running, which deteriorates the insulating performance and threatens the reliability of the transformer directly. Aging research is vital in the insulation research, which contributes to the insulation diagnosis and lifetime prediction.In this paper, an electro-thermal aging physical model based on ASTM-D149-81 is used in the oil-paper insulation experiment, and the Weibull distribution is introduced to calculate the experimental lifetime. Several famous mathematical aging models are used to fit testing data and calculate the theoretical lifetime.At last, with analyzing and comparing these results ,it can be found that the reasons of the different results for mathematical aging models. It also can be found that the FALLOU model is the best life model for the oil-paper insulation model.更多还原