【摘要】 本文介绍了组合预测模型的原理,并以周期叠加外推法、平稳时间序外推法和灰色预测为子预测模型建立时变权最小方差组合预测模型。实例计算结果表明,时变权最小方差组合预测模型的预测精度优于3个子预测模型。组合预测模型理论依据充分,既可应用于流域年径流量的预测,又可推广到其他水文要素的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper introduces the principle of combination forecast method. The temporal varying weight minimum variance combination forecast model is established taking the periodic nestification method, the stable temporal series method and the grey forecast as subforecast model. The result of calculation indicates that the forecast precision of temporal varying weight minimum variance combination forecast model is higher that three subforecast models. The theory basis of combination forecast model is sufficient, it is applied to forecast annual runoff as well as to forecast other hydrological essential factors.更多还原