【摘要】 本文以沪深两市综合股指日收盘价为研究对象,引入局部Hurst指数概念,验证了在我国股市大跌前,综合股指日收盘价的局部Hurst指数的变化趋势符合“持续下降”的规律。此外,本文还提出“局部Hurst指数下降开始日与股市大跌结束日的时间间隔超过两周”以及“下降结束日与股市大跌开始日可能会有小段时间间隔”的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper,according to the closing price of compositive indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets,introducing the idea of local Hurst index,verifies that the tendency of local Hurst index of the closing price of compositive index conforms to the law of continually falling before crash,and also the puts forward the following points of view: the time between the beginning of the "continually falling" and the end of crash is over two weeks and maybe there is a short interval between the end of falling and the beginning of crash.更多还原