【摘要】 分析了乌鲁木齐河流域近40 a来的气候变化及其气候要素与冰川融水、降水径流的关系.结果表明:高山冰川区融水径流的变化主要受气温变化影响,冰川区夏季6~8月累积气温每增加0.5℃,流域37.95 km2冰川产生的融水量将增加3.3514×106m3;近期气温再升高0.5℃,冰川融水年平均径流量将达到35×106m3.降水对中高山径流的影响较大,每增加20 mm降水量,降雨径流量增加8.9×106m3,40 a来其变化呈略增加趋势,年平均增加量为0.4095×106m3,与冰川融水增加量相当;降水与冰川融水径流量增加百分率相比,增加幅度较小.最后提出了减少污染,增加植被覆盖面积等应对气候变化对水资源影响的措施.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of meteorological and hydrological data of the rümqi River basin,climate change in the past 40 years was analyzed,together with a correlation analysis of climate parameter,glacier meltwater and precipitation runoff.In the alpine glacier regions,the increase of temperature has major effect on the variation of glacier-melt runoff.With a 0.5 ℃ temperature increasing,the meltwater runoff increases 3.3514×10⁶ m³.If the temperature increases 0.5 ℃ in the near future,meltwater runoff will reach about 35×10⁶m³.At the same time,precipitation has an effect on runoff of medium-high mountain regions.When precipitation increases 20 mm,rain runoff will increase 8.9 10⁶ m³.Variation of runoff due to precipitation change shows an ascending tendency,with an annual increment of 0.4095×10⁶ m³,equivalent to an increment of glacier meltwater.But,as compared to the increased percentage of runoff from glacier meltwater,the increase amplitude is smaller.Facing the impact of climate change on water resources,measures,such as reducing pollution and increasing vegetation coverage,are suggested.更多还原