【摘要】 生态用水和社会经济用水的竞争状况使得研究水资源短缺地区的流域生态经济系统安全状况、有效进行生态缺水条件下流域生态经济系统的调控十分必要。从宏观角度出发,首先分析了流域生态经济系统演化的机制和影响因素,在此基础上,通过建立指标体系,提出了构建流域主要指标为状态变量的生态经济系统演化模型,并利用模型进行系统安全性分析。以潮白河流域为例,构建了人口数量、人均GDP、生态系统指数以及生态用水比例为状态变量的生态经济系统演化模型。模型模拟结果表明,如果不加以调控,该流域将无法提供生态经济系统的安全保障。提出了提高生态用水比例、控制经济增长速度和积极进行生态建设、控制水土流失的对策,为实现潮白河流域的生态经济系统安全保障服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present paper aims to introduce the author’s analysis of the evolving mechanism and the influential factors of the eco-environment and economic system of the lower reach of the river basin,including eco-and economic value of the water resources,the intensive situation of the water exploitation under the limited water resources.The analysis also includes the evolutionary trend of the river basins’ eco-and economic systems.Generally speaking,there are at least three evolutionary trends with such systems,that is,the development of economic exploitation,eco-protection and the coordinated development.As is known, the limited water resources in the area form the ecological and economic system under the present dangerous shortage situation with the water resources,therefore,it is essential to regulate and control such resources effectively with great care.On the basis of the above needs and the purpose of better use of the water resource,the paper has provided the corresponding indicators and built up the evolvement model for the river basins eco-environment and economic system.In doing so,we have taken Chao-bai River Basin as a case study and in turn established an evolutionary model consisting of four statistical variables: population,GDP per person,level of ecosystem,and the ratio of water exploitation.In this model,there are four status variables which result from the analysis of the indicating system by using a method of analyzing the main components.Meanwhile, the above four variables also stand for society,economy,ecosystem and water resources system respectively.They are standardized before parameter recognition for the evolvement model.At the same time,present analysis also draws a conclusion that although the economic benefits may increase in the future years,the ecosystem may be going degraded in spite of the implementation of any cybernetics measures.Through analysis,the article has brought about necessary strategies including increasing ratio of ecological water use,limiting the increasing speed of GDP per person,accelerating ecological construction,and strengthening the conservation of soil and water.All this will help to guarantee the ecological economic system of Chao-bai River Basin with a great security.更多还原