【摘要】 在研究北京市水资源供需现状的基础上,采用系统动力学方法构建了北京市水资源动态预测模型。对人口、产业结构和政策3个约束水资源供需平衡的核心因子进行分析,并将它们的变化趋势作为参数输入北京市水资源系统动力学模型中,通过动态仿真模拟,得到未来北京市水资源供需平衡变化的两种典型情景。结果显示,在保持现有政策和技术水平下,北京市水资源安全形势日益严峻,2010年水资源供求比为0.98;若加强人口、产业结构和政策等几项因子的约束,北京市水资源供需形式可逐渐缓和,2010年水资源供需比增至1.15。研究表明,约束因子对北京市水资源供需平衡有很大影响,加强人口、产业结构和政策的约束,实施相关的水资源政策,是提高水资源利用效率,缓解北京市水资源危机的重要保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims at analyzing the major factors restricting the water supply security and simulating the effects of such restrictions on the balance between the supply and demand in Beijing urban areas so as to bring about some countermeasures based on the result of the simulation. In order to preserve and utilize the present water resources, it is of great urgency to provide a more comprehensive and accurate analysis of current supply and demand situation of the City effectively, which involves at least three main factors, that is, the potential of water resources, the population policy and industrial structure. Based on the research of these restrictions, the paper has developed a System Dynamics model for water resources (SDWR) of the City. Next, the authors have provided a simulation on the original data input, the various velocities of variables, the effects of the constraints concerned on the water resources balance by SDWR. Then, software VENSIM is used for quantitative analysis of the model. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the situation of water resources in Beijing City will be getting worse and worse under the existing policy and technology levels if there were no more strong countermeasures, the ratio of supply and demand will fall to 0.98 in 2010; (2) if the constraints of population, industrial structure and policies are under the most favorable condition, the ratio of supply and demand of water resources in Beijing City will rise to 1.15 in 2010, and the water using efficiency will also increase. According to the simulation, it will be of great importance to strengthen the constraints and implement water resource management policies. To deal with the above critical situations, the present authors are willing to suggest the following countermeasures: insisting on the adjustment of industrial structure, reinforcing the water conservation agriculture, creating water resources allocation and distribution system by relying on the joint efforts to combine the roles of government and market, strengthening the protective development of the urgent supply of water resources projects so as to creating a water-saving society and insure water resources security in the future.更多还原