【摘要】 根据广东梅州1975～2002年马尾松毛虫发生程度的历史资料,应用马尔可夫链方法对2003～2005年的马尾松毛虫发生程度进行预测,并对1993～2002年的发生程度进行回测,历史符合率为85%。该方法简便易行,为马尾松毛虫发生程度的长期预测提供了一条新途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the database of Dendrolimus punctatus from 1975 to 2002 in Meizhou of Guangdong Province,the occurrence degree of Dendrolimus punctatus in 2003～2005 was forecasted by means of Markov chain.The simulation forecast accuracy of 1993～2002 was 85 %.The method was easy and reliable,which provided a new forecasting way of the occurrence degree of Dendrolimus punctatus in long term.更多还原