【摘要】 [目的]预测乡镇石棉加工人员发病趋势,评价综合防尘效果。[方法]以寿命表法预测石棉肺发病趋势,收集石棉肺患者经济损失资料,计算防尘工作产生的社会经济效益。[结果]防尘工作显著地减少了石棉肺病人发生,且取得了明显的社会经济效益,预期慈溪市自1982年后16a内将发生704例石棉肺病人,而实际上只发生27例,减少了677例石棉肺发生,获得经济效益8 308.021万元,防尘投资效益比为1:7.7。[结论]采用剂量患病概率寿命表法预测石棉肺发病趋势是可行的,“八字防尘经验”是一套行之有效的预防措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] To predict the asbestosis incidence of workers in rural asbestos factories, and evaluate the comprehensive dust- control results. [Methods] Prevalence of asbestosis was predicted by the analytical method of life table. The economic loss data of the patients were collected to calculate the social and economic benefits of dust - control work. [Results] Dust - control work obviously decreased the occurrence of asbestosis, and gained obvious social and economic benefits. 704 cases of asbestosis were predicted to arise in 16 years since 1982, but actually only 27 cases were found, with a decrease of 677 cases, and approximately 83. 08 million yuan were saved. The rate between investment and benefit is 1:7.7. [Conclusion] To predict the prevalence of asbestosis by analytical method of life table is reasonable, and the experience of eight words experience of dust - control is an effective prevention measure.更多还原