【摘要】 中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达、人口最稠密的地区,同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海等9个沿海重点城市为例,通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理,提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模;利用MonteCarlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟,得到了极值风速序列;对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析,得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速,结果与实测风速比较吻合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Southeast coastal region of China is the most highly developed and populated area in China, and also one of the regions most seriously impacted by typhoon in the world. By analyzing the typhoon data in Typhoon Annals, key parameters of typhoon are extracted and analyzed for Shanghai and other key cities in this area. The statistical models of the key parameters are established. Monte Carlo method is employed and Batts wind field model is embedded in the numerical typhoon simulation. The maximum wind speeds and directions for large amount of simulated typhoons are obtained. The extreme wind speeds of different return periods and landforms are estimated. The estimated results fit well with observed wind data.更多还原