【摘要】 当前,气候变化对洪水干旱等水文极端事件的影响已引起许多研究者的关注。在现有可用于气候变化(CO2 加倍)研究的日流量随机模型基础上,用 适线法"按皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布生成年径流量。结果表明,经过改动后的日流量随机模型适用于所研究的弥河流域,在CO2 加倍条件下,弥河流域水文极端事件以旱灾为主,但同时也存在发生大洪大涝灾害的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 More and more attention has focused on assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes at present. In this paper, based on the available stochastic model for daily runoff, the annual average runoff data is produced randomly by means of the P-Ⅲ model. The results state that the modified stochastic model for daily runoff is suitable for the study area. Under the condition of CO 2 doubling, there are more droughts in Mihe basin, meanwhile the floods are possible.更多还原